Speaker – Greg Tierney, EPA 

Seminar Title – A Flexible Framework for Quantifying the Human Health Risk of Extreme Temperature Events

Date/Time – October 30, 3:30PM, 1108 Jordan Hall and via Zoom

Bio – Greg Tierney joined EPA as an ORISE fellow in April 2021 and currently studies the human and environmental impact of extreme events, with an interest in temperature extremes. Previously as a postdoc at NC State, he studied the effect of climate change on atmospheric blocking using idealized numerical modeling methods. Greg earned his B.S. in atmospheric science from Cornell University and his M.S. and Ph.D. in atmospheric science at the University of Michigan, with a dissertation focused on extratropical cyclone sensitivity to environmental variability.

Abstract – Extreme temperature events – both heat waves and cold snaps – pose significant hazards to human health, with underserved and vulnerable communities often hit hardest. With these events projected to become more common and more extreme in the future, flexible tools are needed to assess their current and future risk across a variety of durations and thresholds.

To address this need, we utilize intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, frequently used in hydrology, as the basis for a flexible framework evaluating temperature extremes. The information-dense nature of IDFs permits coverage of several return periods (multi-year to multi-decade) and event lengths (2 hours to >10 days) in a compact visual format. Enhancements incorporating near-extreme events and uncertainty quantification provide additional utility in a range of applications including real-time event classification, integration with model projections, and use of health-focused metrics such as heat index and wind chill.